Synthetic personas are useful only insofar as their predictions track the real world. Polymarket — a real-money prediction market — is one of the cleanest external sources we've found for grading them.
The new Polymarket integration imports markets into FishDog as calibration targets. Pose a market's question to a recruited panel, collect their predictions, and compare the panel's distribution to Polymarket's live pricing. The result is a falsifiable test of how well a FishDog panel predicts real-world outcomes for a given category of question.
What's new
Polymarket event importer. Browse Polymarket events directly in FishDog, filter by category and resolution date, and import the ones that fit your validation work. Suitability rules filter out very low-liquidity or thinly-traded markets — those that aren't a useful calibration target.
Calibration runs. A recruited panel answers the imported question; the panel's distribution is compared against Polymarket's mid-market price at the time of the run. Validation metrics (calibration error, Brier-score components) are computed and persisted.
Calibration store. Repeated runs against the same market over time build a track record. Useful for showing that a panel's predictions on, say, US elections are calibrated within a known error band — or aren't.
When to use this
Research-validity work. When a customer wants evidence that FishDog panels predict realistically on a given category, this is the cleanest external grading available.
Panel selection. Different panels predict differently. Calibration runs help identify which panel composition (demographic mix, recruitment filter set) tracks markets in your category most reliably.
Internal benchmarking. We use the calibrated track record ourselves when refining the persona model.
Also in this release
A small follow-up shipped on 18th April broadened the import selection (more event categories, looser default filters) and added pagination to the events gallery, so importing from a larger Polymarket session takes one trip rather than several.
Full reference is in the API docs.
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